Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.035717 0.040720 0.046202 0.052661 0.060068 0.068307 0.078174
2025-01-19 0.026504 0.032912 0.040580 0.050454 0.062863 0.077987 0.097884
2025-01-26 0.023137 0.030437 0.039708 0.052392 0.069366 0.091402 0.122348
2025-02-02 0.020777 0.028650 0.039149 0.054246 0.075528 0.104644 0.147821
2025-02-09 0.018963 0.027234 0.038738 0.056013 0.081491 0.117986 0.174764
2025-02-16 0.016904 0.025157 0.037068 0.055652 0.084178 0.126738 0.195843
2025-02-23 0.015388 0.023658 0.036003 0.055950 0.087718 0.136929 0.220057
2025-03-02 0.013866 0.021957 0.034413 0.055194 0.089424 0.144314 0.240482
2025-03-09 0.012969 0.021122 0.034047 0.056280 0.094105 0.156806 0.270592
2025-03-16 0.011854 0.019811 0.032769 0.055695 0.095879 0.164568 0.293359
2025-03-23 0.011312 0.019389 0.032895 0.057458 0.101797 0.179921 0.331215
2025-03-30 0.010247 0.017965 0.031180 0.055820 0.101491 0.184196 0.349125
2025-04-06 0.009401 0.016864 0.029953 0.054986 0.102655 0.191429 0.373864
2025-04-13 0.008446 0.015483 0.028107 0.052834 0.101142 0.193530 0.388898
2025-04-20 0.008175 0.015327 0.028466 0.054856 0.107815 0.211970 0.438965
2025-04-27 0.007911 0.015158 0.028778 0.056803 0.114522 0.231153 0.492896
2025-05-04 0.007653 0.014973 0.029036 0.058657 0.121213 0.250984 0.550631
2025-05-11 0.007162 0.014282 0.028240 0.058278 0.123198 0.261175 0.588277
2025-05-18 0.006788 0.013793 0.027801 0.058591 0.126675 0.274891 0.635579
2025-05-25 0.006335 0.013101 0.026887 0.057797 0.127638 0.283162 0.671130
2025-06-01 0.006102 0.012850 0.026864 0.058937 0.133031 0.301933 0.734204
2025-06-08 0.005729 0.012267 0.026088 0.058323 0.134338 0.311419 0.775552
2025-06-15 0.005592 0.012187 0.026386 0.060174 0.141595 0.335672 0.857353